Scottish independence / References and acknowledgements

References

Blais, A. and Nadeau, R. (1992), 'To Be or Not To Be Sovereigntist: Quebeckers' Perennial Dilemma', Canadian Public Policy, 28: 89-103

Cameron, D. (2012), PM Scotland Speech 16 February 2012, available at: 
www.number10.gov.uk/news/transcript-pm-scotland-speech/

Commission on Scottish Devolution (2009), Serving Scotland Better: Scotland and the United Kingdom in the 21st Century, Edinburgh: Commission on Scottish Devolution

Conservative Democracy Task Force (2008), Answering the Question: Devolution, the West Lothian Question and the Future of the Union, London: Conservative Party

Curtice, J. (1999), 'Is Scotland a Nation and Wales Not?', in Taylor, B. and Thomson, K. (eds.), Scotland and Wales: Nations Again?, Cardiff: University of Wales Press

Curtice, J. and Ormston, R. (2011), 'So who is winning the debate? Constitutional preferences
in Scotland after four years of nationalist government', Scottish Affairs, 74 : 24-44

Gellner, E. (1983), Nations and Nationalism, Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press

Hazell, R. (ed.) (2006), The English Question, Manchester: Manchester University Press

Heathcoat Amory, E. (2007), 'The new apartheid', Daily Mail, 16 June

Hechter, M. (2000), Containing Nationalism, Oxford: Oxford University Press

Heffer, S. (2007), 'The Union of England and Scotland is over', The Daily Telegraph, 14 November

HM Treasury (2011), Public Expenditure Statistical Analyses 2011, Cm 8104, London: The Stationery Office

Howe, P. (1998), 'Rationality and Sovereign Support in Quebec', Canadian Journal of Political Science, 31: 31-59

Lamont, J. (2012), Speech to Scottish Labour Party Conference 2012, available at: www.labourhame.com/archives/3024

McCrone, D. and Paterson, L. (2002), 'The Conundrum of Scottish Independence', Scottish Affairs, 40: 54-75

Nadeau, R., Martin, P. and Blais, A. (1999), 'Attitude towards Risk-Taking and Individual Choice in the Quebec Referendum on Sovereignty', British Journal of Political Science, 29: 523-39

Ormston, R. (2012), The English Question: How is England responding to devolution? London: NatCen Social Research, available at: www.natcen.ac.uk/media/816007/the-english-question-final.pdf

Ormston, R. and Curtice, J. (2010), 'Resentment or Contentment? Attitudes towards the Union 10 years on', in British Social Attitudes: the 27th Report - Exploring Labour's legacy, London: Sage

Ormston, R. and Reid, S. (2012), Scottish Social Attitudes Survey 2011 Core Module: Attitudes to Government, The Economy and Public Services in Scotland, Edinburgh: Scottish Government, available at: www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2012/06/3902

Sambanis, N. (2006), 'Globalization, Secession and Autonomy: A review of the literature and some conjectures', in Cameron, D., Ranis, G. and Zinn, A. (eds.), Globalization and Self-Determination: Is the nation state under siege?, London: Routledge

Sandford, M. (2009), The Northern Veto, Manchester: Manchester University Press

Scotland Office (2012), Scotland's Constitutional Future, Cm 8203, London: The Stationery Office

Scottish Government (2009), Your Scotland, Your Voice: A National Conversation, Edinburgh: Scottish Government

Sorens, J. (2005), 'The Cross-Sectional Determinants of Secessionism in Advanced Democracies', Comparative Political Studies, 38: 304-26

Surridge, P., Paterson, L., Brown, A. and McCrone, D. (1998), 'The Scottish Electorate and the Scottish Parliament', Scottish Affairs, Special Issue on Constitutional Change:  38-60

Surridge, P. and McCrone, D. (1999), 'The 1997 Scottish Referendum Vote', in Taylor, B. and Thomson, K. (eds.), Scotland and Wales: Nations Again?, Cardiff: University of Wales Press

Thomson, B., Blackett, G., Aitken, J., Mawdsley, G. and Payne, A. (2011), Devolution Plus, Edinburgh: Reform Scotland. Available at: www.reformscotland.com/index.php/publications/details/1148

Acknowledgements

NatCen Social Research is grateful to the Nuffield Foundation for the financial support that enabled us to ask the 2010 and 2011 Scottish Social Attitudes questions reported in this chapter. The views expressed are those of the authors alone.

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Notes
  1. Such a commitment had also been included in the SNP's 2007 election manifesto. However, as a minority government between 2007 and 2011, the SNP lacked the votes in the Scottish Parliament needed to pass legislation authorising a ballot.
  2. In the case of the first two items the unweighted and weighted sample size in 1997 is 676. In the case of the remaining items the unweighted size is 657 and the weighted 659. The unweighted sample size for all items in 2011 is 1156 and the weighted 1167.
  3. Support for independence has been modelled using binary logistic regression in which the dependent variable is support for independence (either inside or outside the European Union) versus any other response. Confidence in independence has been modelled using ordinal logistic regression in which the dependent variable is a five-point scale ranging from "very confident" to "very worried".
  4. In contrast to binary logistic regression, the ordinal logistic procedure in SPSS does not provide a stepwise facility. This means we do not know the order in which the variables would be entered using such an approach. However, an alternative analysis of the data on confidence in independence using stepwise binary logistic regression revealed that the order in which the variables were entered using that approach was much the same as the order of the Wald scores reported by the ordinal regression.
  5. Bases for Table 7.3 are as follows:

    undefined
  6. The full question wording was as follows:

    Which of the following do you think has most influence over the way Scotland is run?

    And which do you think ought to have most influence over the way Scotland is run?

    [the Scottish Government, the UK government at Westminster, local councils in Scotland, the European Union]
  7. Note that, unlike the questions reported in Table 7.5, these questions did not offer the answer options "local councils in Scotland" or "European Union". As so few respondents chose these options when they were offered, their exclusion will have made little or no material difference to the pattern of response.
  8. We should note though that the balance in favour of decisions being made in Edinburgh rather than London is in both cases somewhat less than for the already devolved area of university tuition fees, where no less than 86 per cent think decisions should be taken by the Scottish Parliament and only 10 per cent say responsibility should lie with Westminster.
  9. Note that in contrast to the question reported at Figure 7.1, independence is not referred to here as involving 'separation' from the rest of the UK. In general, survey questions that include 'separation' in their description of independence have tended to elicit lower levels of support than those that do not.
  10. In the case of welfare benefits, the relevant figure in 2010 was 82 per cent while in the cass of taxes it was 83 per cent.
  11. The relevant 2010 figures are 61 per cent for welfare benefits and 54 per cent for taxes.
  12. Debarring Scottish MPs from voting on English laws would not necessarily prove unpopular with the general public north of the border either. When the question presented in Table 7.8 was last asked by Scottish Social Attitudes, in 2009, 47 per cent agreed that Scottish MPs should not vote on English laws, while only 22 per cent disagreed.
  13. In 2004-2006 the second option read "that makes decisions about the region's economy, planning and housing". The 2003 survey carried both versions of this option and demonstrated that the difference of wording did not make a material difference to 
the pattern of response. In Figure 7.2 the figures shown for 2003 are those for the two versions combined.
  14. It has also been suggested that the creation of directly elected mayors in the major cities of England might provide a focus for greater devolution in a manner that, along with the creation of the Greater London Assembly, it has already done. However, as the Constitutional reform chapter shows, public opinion towards directly elected mayors is somewhat equivocal and, in practice, when 10 of England's largest provincial cities were asked in May 2012 to vote in a referendum on whether they should have such a mayor, only one voted in favour.
  15. This increase would appear to be attributable to the increased concern about Scotland's share of public spending, albeit not wholly so. Those who think that Scotland secures more than its fair share are markedly more likely to support Scottish independence (33 per cent) than are those who do not think it secures more than its fair share (19 per cent). The increase in support for Scottish independence between 2007 and 2011 among those who say that Scotland secures more than its fair share is, at five points, a little less than the seven point increase in the population as a whole. At the same time, the equivalent figure among those who feel Scotland does not secure more than its fair share is, at two points, well below the general increase of seven. Some of that overall increase of seven points must therefore have arisen because of the rise between 2007 and 2011 in the proportion who think that Scotland secures more than its fair share.
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  • Notes
    1. Such a commitment had also been included in the SNP's 2007 election manifesto. However, as a minority government between 2007 and 2011, the SNP lacked the votes in the Scottish Parliament needed to pass legislation authorising a ballot.
    2. In the case of the first two items the unweighted and weighted sample size in 1997 is 676. In the case of the remaining items the unweighted size is 657 and the weighted 659. The unweighted sample size for all items in 2011 is 1156 and the weighted 1167.
    3. Support for independence has been modelled using binary logistic regression in which the dependent variable is support for independence (either inside or outside the European Union) versus any other response. Confidence in independence has been modelled using ordinal logistic regression in which the dependent variable is a five-point scale ranging from "very confident" to "very worried".
    4. In contrast to binary logistic regression, the ordinal logistic procedure in SPSS does not provide a stepwise facility. This means we do not know the order in which the variables would be entered using such an approach. However, an alternative analysis of the data on confidence in independence using stepwise binary logistic regression revealed that the order in which the variables were entered using that approach was much the same as the order of the Wald scores reported by the ordinal regression.
    5. Bases for Table 7.3 are as follows:

      undefined
    6. The full question wording was as follows:

      Which of the following do you think has most influence over the way Scotland is run?

      And which do you think ought to have most influence over the way Scotland is run?

      [the Scottish Government, the UK government at Westminster, local councils in Scotland, the European Union]
    7. Note that, unlike the questions reported in Table 7.5, these questions did not offer the answer options "local councils in Scotland" or "European Union". As so few respondents chose these options when they were offered, their exclusion will have made little or no material difference to the pattern of response.
    8. We should note though that the balance in favour of decisions being made in Edinburgh rather than London is in both cases somewhat less than for the already devolved area of university tuition fees, where no less than 86 per cent think decisions should be taken by the Scottish Parliament and only 10 per cent say responsibility should lie with Westminster.
    9. Note that in contrast to the question reported at Figure 7.1, independence is not referred to here as involving 'separation' from the rest of the UK. In general, survey questions that include 'separation' in their description of independence have tended to elicit lower levels of support than those that do not.
    10. In the case of welfare benefits, the relevant figure in 2010 was 82 per cent while in the cass of taxes it was 83 per cent.
    11. The relevant 2010 figures are 61 per cent for welfare benefits and 54 per cent for taxes.
    12. Debarring Scottish MPs from voting on English laws would not necessarily prove unpopular with the general public north of the border either. When the question presented in Table 7.8 was last asked by Scottish Social Attitudes, in 2009, 47 per cent agreed that Scottish MPs should not vote on English laws, while only 22 per cent disagreed.
    13. In 2004-2006 the second option read "that makes decisions about the region's economy, planning and housing". The 2003 survey carried both versions of this option and demonstrated that the difference of wording did not make a material difference to 
the pattern of response. In Figure 7.2 the figures shown for 2003 are those for the two versions combined.
    14. It has also been suggested that the creation of directly elected mayors in the major cities of England might provide a focus for greater devolution in a manner that, along with the creation of the Greater London Assembly, it has already done. However, as the Constitutional reform chapter shows, public opinion towards directly elected mayors is somewhat equivocal and, in practice, when 10 of England's largest provincial cities were asked in May 2012 to vote in a referendum on whether they should have such a mayor, only one voted in favour.
    15. This increase would appear to be attributable to the increased concern about Scotland's share of public spending, albeit not wholly so. Those who think that Scotland secures more than its fair share are markedly more likely to support Scottish independence (33 per cent) than are those who do not think it secures more than its fair share (19 per cent). The increase in support for Scottish independence between 2007 and 2011 among those who say that Scotland secures more than its fair share is, at five points, a little less than the seven point increase in the population as a whole. At the same time, the equivalent figure among those who feel Scotland does not secure more than its fair share is, at two points, well below the general increase of seven. Some of that overall increase of seven points must therefore have arisen because of the rise between 2007 and 2011 in the proportion who think that Scotland secures more than its fair share.
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